Journals › Basic Terminologies
Curve fitting, look ahead bias aur wo sawaal jo har claim ke saath poochhna chahiye
Published by The Retail Trader · JUL 26, 2026 · Advisory & Research
Purane data par chalaya gaya result banana aasan hai. Us result ka live mein dohraya jaana bilkul alag cheez hai, aur beech mein kai aisi galtiyan hain jo anjaane mein ho jaati hain.
Sabse aam problem curve fitting hai — parameters ko itna tweak kar dena ki wo purane data par perfect baithein. Wo model history ko yaad kar leta hai, seekhta kuch nahi.
Doosri problem look ahead bias hai, jahan model ko aisi jaankari mil jaati hai jo us waqt available hi nahi thi.
Kisi bhi performance claim par ye chaar sawaal poochhe ja sakte hain:
• Ye live tha ya backtest — aur live kab se hai.
• Isme brokerage, taxes aur slippage shaamil hain ya nahi.
• Maximum drawdown kitna tha, sirf return nahi.
• Kitne trades par ye result hai — dus trades ka result data nahi hai.
Jo claim in sawaalon par asahaj ho jaata hai, wo apne aap mein jawaab hai. Ek imaandaar track record apna sabse bura daur khud dikhata hai, kyunki wahi uska sabse bharosemand hissa hota hai.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.