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Normal distribution ka jhooth, aur bade moves ki asli frequency
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 02, 2026 · Risk Management
Zyadatar risk models ye maante hain ki returns ek normal distribution follow karte hain. Market usse nahi follow karta — bade moves us model se kaafi zyada baar aate hain.
Fat tails ka matlab hai ki distribution ke kinaron par zyada weight hai — yaani bahut badi upar neeche wali chaal utni durlabh nahi jitni theory kehti hai.
Isliye "ye to das hazaar saal mein ek baar hota hai" jaise statements aksar galat model par bane hote hain, real history par nahi.
Ye baatein isi wajah se sach hain:
• Historical volatility se nikaala gaya worst case aksar chhota nikalta hai.
• Leverage tail events mein sabse zyada nuksaan karta hai, average dino mein nahi.
• Short volatility strategies lambe samay tak chhota profit deti hain aur ek baar bada nuksaan.
• Isliye maximum loss ka anumaan model se nahi, position size se tay karna chahiye.
Poore portfolio par ek stress test lagana chahiye: agar market ek hafte mein bahut gir jaaye to aap kahan khade ho. Wo answer aapki strategy ke baare mein wo bata deta hai jo saal bhar ka average return kabhi nahi batata.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.