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INDIA VIX: JITNA DAR, UTNA HI ACCHA AGLA TIMAAHI RAHA HAI
18 saal ka data — VIX ke har level par Nifty ka agle 3 mahine ka actual return
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 07, 2026 · Global Macro
India VIX ko 'fear index' kaha jata hai, aur jab wo bhaagta hai to har headline ghabrahat bechti hai. To humne seedha sawaal poochha: jab VIX kis level par tha, uske baad ke teen mahine Nifty ne actually kaisa perform kiya? March 2008 se July 2026 tak har trading day ko uske VIX level ke hisaab se bucket kiya, aur uske 63 sessions baad ka Nifty return naapa.
SABSE OONCHA VIX, SABSE ACCHA AGLA TIMAAHI
Jab India VIX 35 se upar tha (311 din), uske baad ke teen mahine mein Nifty ka average return +11.7% raha, aur 71% baar positive. Ye baaki har bucket se kai guna zyada hai.
Iska ulta bhi utna hi dilchasp hai: jab VIX 12 aur 15 ke beech tha — yaani sabse shaant, sabse aaramdeh tape — tab agle teen mahine ka average sirf +1.0% raha, aur sirf 58% baar positive. Poore dataset ka sabse kamzor forward return, sabse shaant mahaul se aaya.
PAR YE EK SAAF SEEDHI LINE NAHI HAI
Agar ye rishta perfect hota to har bucket pichhle se behtar hota. Waisa nahi hai, aur ise chhupana beimani hogi:
Poora ladder, jaisa hai:
• VIX 12 se neeche — +2.8% average, 78% positive (382 din). Hit rate poore dataset mein sabse ooncha.
• VIX 12-15 — +1.0%, 58% (1,072 din). Sabse kamzor.
• VIX 15-20 — +2.6%, 66% (1,471 din). Sabse common regime.
• VIX 20-25 — +3.4%, 65% (714 din).
• VIX 25-35 — +1.1%, 60% (476 din). Yahan ladder toot-ta hai.
• VIX 35+ — +11.7%, 71% (311 din).
25-35 wala bucket 20-25 se kharab hai. Yaani 'jitna zyada VIX utna zyada return' ek saaf niyam nahi hai — extreme par bahut strong hai, beech mein shor hai.
AUR SABSE BADA CAVEAT
35+ wale 311 din poore 18 saal mein barabar nahi phaile hue hain. Wo lagbhag poore ke poore do episodes se aate hain: 2008 ka global crisis aur 2020 ka COVID crash. Dono ke baad bazaar ne bahut tezi se wapasi ki, aur wahi wapasi is bucket ka poora +11.7% bana rahi hai.
Statistically iska matlab ye hai ki ye do observations hain, 311 nahi. Agla 35+ VIX kis tarah khatam hoga, ye do samples se nahi pata chalta. Isliye ise 'panic mein khareedo' ka signal padhna galat hai — ye sirf itna kehta hai ki past ke do bade panics ke baad, bazaar mein rahne walon ko unke rukne ka faayda hua.
ISKA PRACTICAL ISTEMAL
VIX ka sabse imaandaar istemal direction batane ke liye nahi, size batane ke liye hai. Ooncha VIX matlab candles chaudi hongi, stop loss aur door lagana padega, aur usi risk ke liye position chhoti karni padegi. Ye chart isi baat ka doosra pehlu hai: jab tape sabse darawna dikhta hai, tabhi log sabse chhoti position lete hain ya bilkul bahar ho jate hain — aur historically wahi teen mahine sabse zyada de gaye hain.
Aur jab VIX 12-15 ke aaramdeh zone mein baith jata hai, tab position size sabse asaani se badh jata hai — jabki data uss regime ko sabse kam paying batata hai.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.