Journals › Market Intelligence
GIRAWAT KA POORA RECORD: NIFTY 10 BAAR 10% SE ZYADA GIRA HAI
Har badi girawat ki gehrai aur recovery time — aur wo ganit jo har trader ko pata hona chahiye
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 07, 2026 · Equities
Har girawat ke beech mein ek hi sawaal hota hai: kitna aur girega, aur wapas kab aayega. Uska koi jawab nahi hai — par uska itihaas hai. September 2007 se July 2026 tak Nifty 50 exactly 10 baar apne peak se 10% ya zyada gira hai. Ye rahi wo poori list, apne hi daily closes se nikali hui.
DO GIRAWATEIN BAAKI SAB SE ALAG HAIN
Baaki aath 10% se 28% ke beech hain. Ye do us range se bahar hain:
• 2008 — January ke peak se October ke trough tak -59.86%. Girne mein 293 din lage, aur purane level par lautne mein trough ke baad 743 din aur. Poora chakkar lagbhag 1,036 din ka tha.
• 2020 — COVID crash, -38.44%. Ye sabse tez tha: sirf 69 din mein poori girawat, aur 231 din mein recovery. Gehrai 2008 se aadhi thi, par speed doguni.
Baaki aath episodes — 2010-11 (-27.89%), 2015-16 (-22.52%), 2021-22 (-17.23%), 2024-25 (-15.77%), 2018 mein do (-10.17% aur -14.55%), aur 2019 (-11.45%) — ek routine range mein hain. Yaani 19 saal mein lagbhag har do saal mein ek baar 10%+ ki girawat aayi hai. Ye asaadharan nahi hai; ye bazaar ka normal hai.
RECOVERY KA GANIT — YAHIN SABSE BADI GALATFEHMI HAI
Ek girawat ko wapas paatne ke liye utna hi percentage nahi chahiye jitna gira tha. Ye asymmetry hi risk management ki poori wajah hai:
Wapas break-even par aane ke liye kitna gain chahiye:
• -15% ke baad — lagbhag +18% chahiye.
• -25% ke baad — lagbhag +33%.
• -38% ke baad (2020 wala) — lagbhag +62%.
• -60% ke baad (2008 wala) — lagbhag +149%. Yaani paisa lagbhag dhai guna karna padega sirf wahin pahunchne ke liye jahan aap pehle the.
Isiliye bade loss se bachna, badi jeet se zyada important hai. Ek -50% ko cover karne ke liye +100% chahiye, aur +100% market se aane mein saal lagte hain — 2008 ke baad Nifty ko purana peak chhoone mein trough se 743 din lage.
GEHRAI SE ZYADA TIME TAKLEEF DETA HAI
Traders drawdown ki gehrai par focus karte hain, par jo tod-ta hai wo uski lambai hai. 2010-11 ki girawat 2020 se kam gehri thi (-27.89% vs -38.44%), par poora chakkar 1,088 din chala jabki COVID ka sirf 300. Teen saal tak account ka naya high na banna, 38% ke ek tez jhatke se manasik roop se kahin zyada bhaari hai.
Sabse chhoti recovery 2019 ki thi — trough ke sirf 69 din baad. Sabse lambi 2008 ki, 743 din. Ye range itni chaudi hai ki 'market to wapas aa hi jata hai' wali baat sach hote hue bhi bekaar hai: sach hai, par kab, ye kisi ko nahi pata.
AUR ABHI KAHAN KHADE HAIN
Dataset ke aakhri session (24 July 2026) tak, Nifty 2 January 2026 ke peak se -15.18% neeche hai. Trough 30 March 2026 ko bana, aur purana peak abhi tak wapas nahi aaya.
Historical context mein ye episode kahan baithta hai: gehrai ke hisaab se ye das mein se lagbhag beech mein hai — 2024-25 wale -15.77% ke bilkul paas, aur 2021-22 ke -17.23% se thoda kam. Iska matlab ye nahi ki yahan se rukega, aur na hi ye ki aur girega. Iska matlab sirf itna hai ki ab tak ye kuch bhi asaadharan nahi hai.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.