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NIFTY KA CALENDAR: KAUN SA MAHINA ACTUALLY KAISA RAHA
19 saal ka month-by-month record — January ki kamzori se July ki taakat tak, sirf data
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 07, 2026 · Equities
Seasonality market ki sabse zyada quote ki jaane wali aur sabse kam verify ki jaane wali cheez hai. 'Sell in May', 'January effect', 'Diwali rally' — sab sunte hain, koi number nahi deta. To humne apne hi database se Nifty 50 ka har mahina nikala: October 2007 se July 2026 tak, har calendar month ke 19 observations.
SABSE SAAF PATTERN: SAAL KI SHURUAAT KAMZOR HAI
January ka average return -1.27% hai, aur 19 mein se sirf 5 January green mein band hue — yaani 26%. February bhi -1.18% par hai. Ye do mahine hi poore calendar mein wo do hain jinka average negative hai.
Aur ye sirf Nifty ka artefact nahi hai. Sensex par humne wahi test 1997 se chalaya — 29 saal, yaani lagbhag doda sample. Wahan bhi January (-0.36%, 41% up) aur February (-0.24%, 45% up) hi saal ke do sabse kamzor mahine nikle. Do alag index, do alag time period, ek hi conclusion — isse pattern par thoda bharosa banta hai.
APRIL AUR JULY SABSE MAZBOOT
Top ke mahine, average return ke hisaab se:
• April — +3.26% average, 19 mein se 13 saal green (68%). Poore calendar ka sabse strong mahina.
• July — +2.34% average, wahi 68% hit rate. Naya financial year settle ho chuka hota hai aur Q1 results aane lagte hain.
• December — +1.69% average, 63% green. Sensex ke 29 saal ke data mein December aur bhi strong hai: +2.77%, 66% up.
• May — +1.65% average, par sirf 53% saal green. Iska matlab ye hai ki May ka average kuch bade saalon se bana hai, har saal se nahi — May ka best month +28.07% ka tha.
AVERAGE AUR HIT RATE ALAG-ALAG BAAT KEHTE HAIN
Sirf average dekhna trap hai. May ka average (+1.65%) September (+1.10%) se zyada hai, par September zyada baar green band hua (56% vs 53%). Ek mahina jiska average ek hi outlier saal se aaya ho, wo 'reliable' nahi hai — wo bas ek baar bahut accha chala tha.
Isliye chart mein har bar ke neeche hit rate diya gaya hai. Jo mahine dono par accha karte hain — April, July, December — wo hi actually consistent hain. August iska ulta example hai: average lagbhag zero (-0.01%), par 61% saal green. Matlab August mein chhoti jeetein zyada hoti hain aur kabhi-kabhi ek badi haar sab barabar kar deti hai.
SABSE ZAROORI CAVEAT: 19 SAMPLES BAHUT KAM HAIN
Har mahine ke paas sirf 19 observations hain. Statistics mein ye bahut chhota sample hai. Ek 2008 jaisa October (-26.41%) ya ek 2009 jaisa May (+28.07%) poore mahine ka average akela hila deta hai.
Isi wajah se October ka average positive (+0.77%) hai jabki usmein hi poore dataset ka sabse kharab mahina pada tha. Seasonality ko rule nahi, background context maano — position size ya entry ka faisla isse nahi hota, sirf ye samajh aati hai ki kis mahine surprise ka itihaas raha hai.
Practical baat ek hi hai: agar aapki strategy December-January ke aaspaas positions carry karti hai, to ye jaan lena kaam ka hai ki historically wahin se saal ka sabse kamzor patch shuru hota raha hai. Wo prediction nahi hai — wo bas ek naapa hua fact hai.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.