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SABSE VOLATILE SECTORS NE SABSE KAM DIYA — 15 SAAL KA HISAAB
Volatility, drawdown aur total return ek hi window par — aur wo rishta jo ulta nikla
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 07, 2026 · Sector Analysis
Finance ki sabse zyada dohrayi jaane wali baat hai: zyada risk, zyada return. Humne isse apne hi data par test kiya — NSE ke aath sector indices, Nifty 50 ke saath, August 2011 se July 2026 tak, sabke liye bilkul ek hi window (Media ka data sabse baad mein shuru hota hai, isliye sabko wahin se naapa).
RISHTA ULTA NIKLA
Chart mein dots upar-daayein nahi jaate — wo neeche-daayein jaate hain. Jitna volatile sector, utna kam return.
Sabse kam volatile chaar, aur unka 15-saal ka total return:
• Nifty 50 — 16.5% annualised volatility, +346% return.
• FMCG — 16.5% volatility, +384%.
• Pharma — 18.4% volatility, +436%. Poore board ka doosra sabse bada return, aur volatility Nifty se sirf thodi zyada.
• IT — 21.6% volatility, +367%.
Aur sabse zyada volatile chaar:
• Media — 26.3% volatility, +13% return. Pandrah saal, aur total return teen percent bhi nahi per year.
• Metal — 28.0% volatility, +242%.
• Realty — 31.8% volatility, +239%.
• PSU Bank — 32.6% volatility, +125%. Sabse zyada volatile, aur Nifty ke ek-tihai se bhi kam return.
Bank Nifty is pattern ka apwaad hai: 22.8% volatility par +438%, poore board ka sabse ooncha return. Ek apwaad pattern ko todta nahi, par ise 'niyam' kehne se rokta zaroor hai.
DRAWDOWN AUR BHI SAAF BOLTA HAI
Har sector ki isi window mein sabse gehri girawat:
• FMCG — -31.3%. Sabse kam.
• Nifty 50 — -38.4%.
• IT — -44.0%.
• Bank — -47.9%.
• Pharma — -53.5%.
• Realty — -58.7%.
• Metal — -64.3%.
• Media — -72.9%.
• PSU Bank — -75.4%. Sabse gehri, aur return bhi sabse kam.
PSU Bank aur Media ke numbers saath mein padho: teen-chauthai portfolio gaayab hone ke baad, pandrah saal mein +125% aur +13%. Recovery ka ganit yaad karo — -75% ke baad wahin lautne ke liye +300% chahiye.
ISKA MATLAB KYA NIKALEIN
Iska matlab ye nahi ki volatile sectors se door raho. Sector rotation wale journal mein humne dekha tha ki yahi sectors kisi ek saal mein +70% ya +110% deta hai — Realty ne 2017 mein +110% diya tha.
Iska matlab ye hai ki wo return timing par tika hai, holding par nahi. Metal, Realty, PSU Bank aur Media mein khareed kar bhool jaana pandrah saal mein Nifty se kaafi peechhe chhod gaya, jabki unhi mein sahi saal pakadna sabse zyada de gaya. Ye do bilkul alag khel hain, aur zyadatar log pehle wale ka risk lekar doosre wale ka return maan kar chalte hain.
Aur ek practical baat: volatility position size ka input hai. 32% volatility wale index mein wahi rupee-risk lene ke liye position lagbhag aadhi karni padegi us index ke muqable jo 16% par chalta hai. Agar size same rakha, to aapne return double nahi kiya — sirf risk double kiya hai.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.