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SECTOR ROTATION: PICHLE SAAL KA WINNER AGLE SAAL KABHI NAHI JEETA
2012 se 2026 — 14 saal, 8 sectors, aur ek pattern jo har saal dohraya gaya hai
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 07, 2026 · Sector Analysis
Har December ke baad ek hi galti dohrayi jaati hai: jo sector abhi-abhi sabse zyada bhaaga hai, usmein paisa daal dena. Humne NSE ke aath sector indices ka har calendar year ka return nikala — 2012 se ab tak — aur ek number nikla jo is aadat ke bilkul khilaaf jata hai.
14 SAAL, EK BHI BACK-TO-BACK LEADER NAHI
2012 se 2026 tak ke 14 saal-jodon mein, ek bhi baar aisa nahi hua ki jo sector ek saal mein sabse aage tha wo agle saal bhi sabse aage rahe. Ek bhi nahi.
Leadership ka poora silsila:
• 2012 Media (+59%) → 2013 IT (+58%) → 2014 PSU Bank (+67%) → 2015 Media (+10%)
• 2016 Metal (+45%) → 2017 Realty (+110%) → 2018 IT (+24%) → 2019 Realty (+28%)
• 2020 Pharma (+61%) → 2021 Metal (+70%) → 2022 PSU Bank (+71%) → 2023 Realty (+81%)
• 2024 Pharma (+39%) → 2025 PSU Bank (+30%) → 2026 Pharma (+12%, year-to-date)
Sectors laut kar aate hain — Realty teen baar leader raha, PSU Bank teen baar, Pharma teen baar — par kabhi lagataar do saal nahi. Beech mein hamesha kam se kam ek saal ka gap raha hai.
AUR GIRAWAT USSE BHI TEZ HOTI HAI
Ulta pehlu aur bhi tez hai. Jo sector ek saal mein top par tha, wo agle saal aksar seedha bottom par chala jata hai:
Kuch saaf udaharan:
• IT — 2013 mein +58% ke saath leader, 2012 mein sabse peechhe tha (-2%). Phir 2021 mein +60%, aur 2022 mein poore board ka sabse kharab (-26%).
• Realty — 2017 mein +110%, poore dataset ka sabse bada saal. Agle hi saal 2018 mein -33% ke saath sabse peechhe.
• PSU Bank — 2014 mein +67% ke saath leader, 2015 mein -33% ke saath laggard. Ye ulta-palat ek hi saal mein hua.
• Media — 2012 ka leader (+59%), aur uske baad 2018, 2019, 2024, 2025 mein baar-baar sabse peechhe.
ISKA MATLAB KYA HAI AUR KYA NAHI
Iska matlab ye nahi hai ki 'jo pichhle saal jeeta usse bech do'. Ye ek naapa hua pattern hai, koi trading rule nahi — aur 14 observations par koi rule khada nahi hota.
Iska matlab ye hai ki sector-level performance mean-reverting dikhta hai: ek saal ka assadharan return apne aap agle saal ki guarantee nahi hai, aur aksar uska ulta hota hai. Ek portfolio jo poora pichhle saal ke winner mein chala gaya, wo diversified nahi hai — wo ek hi bet hai, jise timing ne accha bana diya tha.
Chart mein rango ka pattern isse saaf dikhata hai: har column (saal) mein hara aur narangi dono hai. Kabhi bhi saare sectors ek saath ek hi taraf nahi gaye — 2026 year-to-date bhi Pharma (+12%) aur Metal (+11%) ko upar aur IT (-24%) ko neeche dikha raha hai, ek hi bazaar mein.
Aur ye ek practical baat kehta hai: agar aap sector chunte ho, to concentration risk aapka sabse bada risk hai — market direction nahi.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.