Yield aur price ka ulta rishta, 10-year yield ka matlab, aur valuation par uska asar
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 09, 2026 · Features
Equity market ki sabse badi tulna kisi doosre stock se nahi hoti. Wo us return se hoti hai jo bina risk ke mil raha hai. Isi ka naam bond yield hai, aur wo chup-chaap har valuation ke peeche baitha hota hai.
Bond ek fixed payment deta hai. Agar bond ka price girta hai to wahi fixed payment ab kam paise par mil raha hai — yaani yield badh gaya. Price badhe to yield ghat jaata hai.
Ye ulta rishta yaad rakhna zaroori hai, kyunki news mein 'yields rose' likha hota hai jiska matlab bond market gira hai.
Government ka 10-saal ka bond lagbhag risk-free maana jaata hai aur wo poore system ka reference ban jaata hai. Corporate udhaar, home loan, aur equity ki valuation — sab kisi na kisi tarah isse jude hote hain.
Isliye 10-year yield ka badalna sirf bond market ki khabar nahi hai. Wo poore market ke liye 'paise ki laagat' ka naya bhaav hai.
Agar risk-free return badh jaaye, to equity ko usse zyada dena hoga tabhi wo attractive rahega. Isi wajah se yield badhne par valuations par dabav aata hai — khaaskar un stocks par jinki kamai door future mein hai.
Isi soch se do aam paimane bante hain:
• Earnings yield — PE ka ulta. Ye equity se milne wali kamai ko percentage mein rakh deta hai, taaki bond se seedhi tulna ho sake.
• Equity risk premium — earnings yield mein se bond yield ghatao. Ye batata hai ki extra risk lene ke badle kitna extra mil raha hai.
• Ye premium sikud jaaye to equity mehnga dikhne lagta hai, chahe absolute PE wahi ho.
• Ye premium chaudha ho to equity sasta dikhta hai — par aksar wo tab hota hai jab dar sabse zyada hota hai.
Alag-alag maturity ke yields ko ek saath dekhne se yield curve banta hai. Aam taur par lambi maturity ka yield zyada hota hai.
Jab chhoti maturity ka yield lambi se upar chala jaata hai — inversion — to historically usse economy ki sust padne ki chinta jodi jaati rahi hai. Ye koi guarantee nahi hai aur uska timing bahut uncertain rehta hai, par wo ek aisa signal hai jise bond market apne paise se de raha hota hai.
Equity ke bhaav sirf company ke andar se nahi bante. Unka ek bada hissa is baat se banta hai ki bina risk ke kitna mil raha hai. Isliye bond market ko na dekhna, equity ki aadhi kahani na padhna hai.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.