Fiscal deficit, borrowing programme, capex — aur budget day ki volatility ka sach
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 09, 2026 · Features
Budget ke din TV par do ghante tak announcements chalte hain aur market upar-neeche naachta rehta hai. Par jo cheezein actually mahino tak asar dalti hain, wo aksar bhaashan mein nahi, documents mein hoti hain.
Speech ke shor se alag, ye dekhne layak hain:
• Fiscal deficit — sarkar apni aamdani se kitna zyada kharch kar rahi hai. Ye poore bond market ka mood tay karta hai.
• Gross borrowing programme — sarkar bazaar se kitna udhaar lene wali hai. Zyada borrowing matlab bond supply zyada, yield par upar ka dabav.
• Capital expenditure — sarkar khud kitna nirmaan par kharch kar rahi hai. Ye infrastructure, cement, capital goods jaise sectors ke liye seedha demand signal hai.
Zyada sarkari udhaar bond yields par dabav daalta hai. Yield badhne ka matlab poore system mein paisa mehnga, aur equity valuation par dabav.
Isliye ek budget jo kharch to bada de par borrowing ko control mein rakhe, wo market ko zyada pasand aata hai — chahe headline announcements kam hi kyun na hon.
Capital gains, securities transaction tax, dividend taxation — inme kisi bhi badlav ka seedha asar retail investor par padta hai.
Ye announcements aksar speech ke ek line mein hote hain aur unka poora detail Finance Bill mein hota hai. Isliye budget ke din ki raay aksar do din baad badalti hai, jab log fine print padhte hain.
Budget ke din market bahut hilta hai aur us hilne ka bada hissa shor hota hai. Har announcement par ek sector chadhta hai aur agle announcement par gir jaata hai.
Us din ke chart se koi trend nikalna aksar bekaar rehta hai. Zyada kaam ki cheez ye dekhna hai ki agle do-teen hafte mein kaunse sectors ne apni chaal banaye rakhi — kyunki wahi asli reaction hoti hai.
Budget se pehle bade positions par leverage kam rakhna ek aam savdhani hai — na is wajah se ki budget bura hoga, balki isliye ki us din price ka behaviour predict karna lagbhag namumkin hota hai.
Aur budget ke baad, expectations ke against nateeja padho. Market pehle se bahut kuch price kar chuka hota hai, isliye 'accha budget' hone par bhi girawat aa sakti hai.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.