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CONFIRMATION BIAS: HUM WAHI DEKHTE HAIN JO HUM MAANTE HAIN

Apni hi position ke haq mein saboot dhoondhna — aur usse bachne ka ek tarika

Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 09, 2026 · Trading Psychology

Position lene ke baad ek ajeeb cheez hoti hai: har khabar us position ke haq mein dikhne lagti hai. Ulti khabar ya to nazar nahi aati, ya 'market ne abhi samjha nahi' ban jaati hai. Iska naam confirmation bias hai.

YE KAISE KAAM KARTA HAI

Position lete hi wo view aapki pehchaan ka hissa ban jaata hai. Ab uske khilaaf jaankari sirf ek data point nahi hai — wo ek personal challenge lagti hai.

Isliye dimaag chun-chun kar wo cheezein uthata hai jo view ko support karti hain, aur baaki ko kam weight deta hai. Ye jaan-boojhkar nahi hota, aur yahi isse khatarnak banata hai.

SOCIAL MEDIA ISE DOGUNA KARTA HAI

Aap unhi logon ko follow karte ho jinki soch aapse milti hai, aur algorithm aapko wahi dikhata hai jispar aap rukte ho. Nateeja ye hota hai ki aapko lagta hai 'sab yahi keh rahe hain' — jabki aapne sirf ek hi taraf ki awaaz sunni chuni thi.

Ek achhi aadat: apne view ke khilaaf sabse acchi dalil jaan boojh kar dhundo, aur wo dalil kisi samajhdar aadmi se dhundho, kisi troll se nahi.

PRE-MORTEM — SABSE ACCHA TOOL

Position lene se pehle ye likh lo:
• Agar ye trade galat sabit hui, to sabse sambhavit wajah kya hogi?
• Kaunsi khabar ya kaunsa level mujhe apna view badalne par majboor karega?
• Us haalat mein main kya karoonga — pehle se tay, abhi.
• Kaun sa data mujhe abhi bhi nahi pata, aur wo kahan milega?

Ye chaar line likhne ka faayda ye hai ki aapne apni exit ki shart pehle likh di — aur baad mein use maanna bahut aasan ho jaata hai, kyunki wo aapne khud shaant dimaag se likha tha.

ULTA VIEW PADHNE KA ANUSHASAN

Har badi position par kam se kam ek aisi report ya analysis padho jo aapke ulta keh rahi ho. Agar padhne ke baad bhi aapka view wahi hai, to ab wo zyada mazboot hai — kyunki wo test hokar aaya hai.

Aur agar padh kar aapko asehjata hoti hai, to shayad wahi sabse zyada padhne layak cheez thi.

Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.

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