Edge ka matlab, expectancy ka hisaab, aur casino ka wo sabak jo har trader ke kaam ka hai
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 09, 2026 · Features
Casino har haath nahi jeetta. Wo lagbhag aadhe haath haarta hai. Phir bhi wo saal ke ant mein hamesha aage hota hai, kyunki uske paas har haath par ek chhoti si ganitiya badhat hai aur wo bahut saare haath khelta hai. Trading mein isi badhat ka naam edge hai.
Edge ka matlab ye nahi ki aap zyada baar sahi ho. Matlab ye hai ki aapke sahi aur galat hone ka hisaab, size aur frequency ke saath milkar, positive nikalta hai.
Isliye 'main 80% baar sahi hota hoon' apne aap mein koi daawa nahi hai. Agar wo 20% haar baaki 80% jeet se badi hai, to edge negative hai.
Expectancy = (win rate × average jeet) − (loss rate × average haar). Ye per trade average nateeja hai.
Ek udaharan, R ke hisaab se (R = ek trade ka risk):
• 40% trades jeetein, average jeet 2R — yaani 0.40 × 2 = 0.80R.
• 60% trades haarein, average haar 1R — yaani 0.60 × 1 = 0.60R.
• Expectancy = 0.80 − 0.60 = +0.20R per trade.
• Matlab 100 trades par lagbhag +20R, agar sab kuch waisa hi chale. Aur yahi 'agar' hi asli kaam hai.
Asli edge lagbhag hamesha chhota hota hai. Jo system 'har trade' jeetne ka daawa kare, wo ya to abhi tak apne bure daur se nahi mila, ya wo bik raha hai.
Chhota edge bekaar nahi hai. Chhota edge, kaafi trades, aur sthir size — inhi teen se lambe samay mein nateeja banta hai. Kisi ek bhi cheez ke bina baaki do kaam nahi karti.
Pehli: laagat. Har trade par charges aur slippage seedha expectancy se katti hai. Ek +0.2R ka edge, agar har trade par 0.1R kharcha hai, to aadha ho gaya.
Doosri: size ka badalna. Bade size par haarna aur chhote size par jeetna aapke sundar win rate ke bawajood account gira deta hai.
Teesri: system badalna. Har bure patch par naya tarika apnana matlab kabhi kisi edge ko kaam karne ka mauka hi na dena.
Market badalta hai aur edges ghiste hain. Isiliye journal aur periodic review sirf discipline nahi hai — wo wo tarika hai jisse pata chalta hai ki aapki badhat abhi zinda hai ya nahi. Aur jis din wo nahi hai, us din sabse acchi trade koi trade na lena hai.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.