Haal ki chaal ko future maan lena, aur uska allocation par asar
Published by The Retail Trader · JUL 26, 2026 · Trading Psychology
Jo abhi ho raha hai wo sabse zyada asli lagta hai. Isi wajah se chalte hue sector mein log tab ghuste hain jab wo sabse mehnga ho chuka hota hai, aur girte hue se tab nikalte hain jab wo sabse sasta hai.
Dimaag haal ke examples ko zyada weight deta hai kyunki wo aasani se yaad aate hain. Teen achhe mahine ek permanent trend jaise lagte hain, aur teen bure mahine ek permanent problem.
Isliye portfolio ki allocation aksar recent performance ke peeche bhaagti hai — jo systematically ulta faisla hota hai.
Ye pattern har cycle mein dohraya jaata hai:
• Fund selection sirf pichle ek saal ke return dekh kar karna.
• Ek sector ka allocation uske recent run ke baad badhana.
• Ek strategy ko do bure hafte ke baad chhod dena.
• Ek asset class ko ek bure saal ke baad portfolio se hata dena.
Allocation ka faisla lambe data par lena chahiye aur uska review calendar par hona chahiye, market ki chaal par nahi. Ek fixed review date recency bias ke against sabse simple defence hai.
Ye article sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi, koi guaranteed return ka daawa nahi, aur koi advisory nahi. Rules, rates aur mechanics exchange, SEBI aur RBI time-time par badalte hain, isliye har number apne broker ya official source par khud verify karo.