CASE STUDY: 2008 — JAB NIFTY 60% GIRA
293 din ki girawat, aur midcap ka -65.4% — dataset ka sabse bada nuksaan
Published by The Retail Trader · OCT 27, 2008 · Case Studies
8 January 2008 ko Nifty ne apna peak banaya. 27 October 2008 ko usne apna trough banaya. Beech mein 293 din the aur 59.9% ka nuksaan — hamare poore 19-saal ke record ka sabse bada drawdown, doosre number se lagbhag doguna.
KISNE KITNA GAWAYA
Peak se trough tak:
• IT — -47.2%, sabse kam nuksaan
• Sensex — -59.2%
• Nifty 50 — -59.9%
• Bank Nifty — -60.5%
• Nifty 500 — -63.9%
• Midcap 100 — -65.4%, sabse zyada
Pattern wahi hai jo har badi girawat mein dikhta hai: jitna chaudha aur chhota-cap basket, utna zyada nuksaan. Midcap 100 ne Nifty se 5.5 point zyada gawaya, aur Nifty 500 ne 4 point zyada.
RECOVERY MEIN KITNA LAGA
Trough ke baad Nifty ko apna purana peak chhoone mein 743 din lage — do saal se zyada. Poora chakkar, peak se peak tak, 1,036 din ka tha.
Recovery ka ganit yaad rakho: -59.9% ke baad wahin pahunchne ke liye +149% chahiye. Aur exactly wahi hua — 28 October 2008 se 5 November 2010 tak Nifty +148.9% gaya.
WAPASI MEIN KAUN AAGE THA
Trough se purane peak tak (Oct 2008 – Nov 2010):
• Bank Nifty — +222.1%
• Midcap 100 — +196.7%
• IT — +186.4%
• Nifty 500 — +162.0%
• Nifty 50 — +148.9%
• Sensex — +145.5%
Jo sabse zyada gire the, wahi sabse zyada laute — Bank Nifty aur Midcap 100. Par ye do alag experiences hain: jisne peak par kharida aur poora rasta rakha, uske liye ye 1,036 din ka round trip tha. Jisne trough ke paas kharida, uske liye do saal mein paisa dhai guna. Ek hi chart, do bilkul alag zindagiyan.
ISKA AAJ KE LIYE MATLAB
2008 hamare drawdown record ka outlier hai — baaki nau episodes mein se aath 10% se 28% ke beech hain. Iska matlab ye nahi ki aisa dobara nahi hoga; iska matlab ye hai ki ise 'normal' maan kar position size decide karna bhi galat hai. 2020 mein -38.4% aaya aur wo 69 din mein aaya, 293 din mein nahi.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.