CASE STUDY: 2015-16 — WO GIRAWAT JISKA KOI CRASH-DAY NAHI THA
359 din mein -22.5%, bina kisi bade single-day jhatke ke
Published by The Retail Trader · FEB 25, 2016 · Case Studies
2008 aur 2020 ki girawatein yaad rehti hain kyunki unmein bade, darawne din the. 2015-16 ki girawat kisi ko yaad nahi rehti — aur wo Nifty ki teesri sabse badi girawat hai. 3 March 2015 se 25 February 2016 tak, 359 din mein -22.5%.
POORA BOARD
Peak se trough tak:
• Media — -3.2%, lagbhag bacha raha
• Pharma — -8.1%
• FMCG — -12.4%
• Midcap 100 — -14.1%
• IT — -19.1%
• Nifty 500 — -20.8%
• Sensex — -22.4%
• Nifty 50 — -22.5%
• Bank Nifty — -32.1%
• Metal — -37.7%
• Realty — -45.4%
• PSU Bank — -49.2%
Ek asaadharan baat: Midcap 100 (-14.1%) ne Nifty (-22.5%) se kam gawaya. Ye baaki har badi girawat ke ulta hai — 2008 mein midcap 5.5 point zyada gira tha, COVID mein lagbhag barabar. 2015-16 largecap-led girawat thi.
KOI CRASH DIN NAHI THA
Hamare 'sabse bure 20 din' wali list mein is poore saal ka sirf ek din hai. Yaani -22.5% ka nuksaan roz thoda-thoda karke bana — koi ek din nahi tha jab 'crash' ki khabar bani ho.
Isi wajah se ye girawat sabse mushkil kism ki hai. Crash mein exit karne ka ek saaf trigger hota hai. Dheemi girawat mein har din pichhle din se sirf thoda kharab hota hai, aur 'ab to bahut gir chuka hai' har hafte sach lagta hai.
RECOVERY
Trough ke baad purane peak tak lautne mein 383 din lage — poora chakkar 742 din. 2008 (1,036 din) ke baad ye doosra sabse lamba chakkar hai. Yaani do saal se zyada tak Nifty ne naya high nahi banaya.
AAJ SE TULNA
2026 ki maujooda girawat — 2 January ke peak se -15.18%, 24 July tak recover nahi — abhi tak shape ke hisaab se 2015-16 se milti-julti hai: koi bada crash-day nahi (sabse bura din 19 March, -3.26%), aur girawat mahinon mein phaili hui.
Farq ye hai ki 2015-16 mein Bank Nifty aur PSU Bank sabse zyada gire the, jabki 2026 mein IT (-24.1% year-to-date) sabse peechhe hai aur Pharma (+12.4%) sabse aage. Ek jaisi shakal, alag leadership.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.