CASE STUDY: COVID 2020 — 69 DIN MEIN 38%, PHIR 19 MAHINE MEIN 143%
Dataset ka sabse tez crash aur sabse tez recovery, ek hi cycle mein
Published by The Retail Trader · OCT 18, 2021 · Case Studies
COVID crash 2008 se aadha gehra tha, par usse chaar guna tez. 14 January 2020 ke peak se 23 March 2020 ke trough tak sirf 69 trading din lage aur Nifty 38.4% gir gaya. Uske baad jo hua wo aur bhi tez tha.
CRASH: KISNE KYA BACHAYA
Peak se trough tak:
• Pharma — -20.8%, sabse kam nuksaan
• FMCG — -25.6%
• IT — -31.7%
• Midcap 100 — -37.7%
• Nifty 500 — -38.0%
• Sensex — -38.1%
• Nifty 50 — -38.4%
• Media — -44.3%
• Realty — -45.0%
• Bank Nifty — -47.3%
• PSU Bank — -48.1%
• Metal — -48.4%
2008 se ek bada farq: is baar sector selection ne actually farq banaya. Pharma aur FMCG ne Nifty se 12 se 18 point kam gawaya. Ye wo do sectors hain jinki volatility poore dataset mein sabse kam hai — 18.4% aur 16.5% annualised.
Doosri taraf Metal, PSU Bank aur Bank Nifty ne 47-48% gawaya. Yahi teen hamare sector risk study mein sabse zyada volatile group mein hain.
RECOVERY: LADDER POORI TARAH PALAT GAYA
Trough se agle peak tak:
• Metal — +317.9%
• IT — +224.8%
• Realty — +211.2%
• Midcap 100 — +199.2%
• Nifty 500 — +154.5%
• Nifty 50 — +142.8%
• Sensex — +137.7%
• Bank Nifty — +134.6%
• Media — +129.9%
• Pharma — +127.0%
• PSU Bank — +121.1%
• FMCG — +79.3%
Metal crash mein sabse kharab tha (-48.4%) aur recovery mein sabse accha (+317.9%). FMCG crash mein doosra sabse accha tha (-25.6%) aur recovery mein sabse kharab (+79.3%). Poora ladder ulta ho gaya.
DEFENSIVE HONE KI ASLI KEEMAT
Ye cycle defensive investing ke trade-off ka sabse saaf udaharan hai. FMCG mein rehne wale ne crash mein 13 point bachaye aur recovery mein 63 point chhode. Net mein, poore cycle par, wo kaafi peechhe raha.
Iska matlab defensive galat hai — aisa nahi. Iska matlab ye hai ki defensive ka faayda tabhi milta hai jab aap girawat mein bane rehte ho. Jo crash mein bhi bik gaya, usne dono taraf ka kharab hissa liya: sasta becha aur mehnga wapas kharida.
Aur ek number: 23 March 2020 poore dataset ka sabse bura din tha (-12.98%). Uske do hafte baad, 7 April 2020, doosra sabse achha din tha (+8.76%). Wo dono din ek doosre se 15 sessions door the.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.