CASE STUDY: 2018-19 — JAB INDEX CHADHA AUR MIDCAP DOOB GAYA
Do saal mein Nifty +15.6%, Midcap 100 -19.1% — 35 point ka gap
Published by The Retail Trader · DEC 31, 2019 · Case Studies
2018 aur 2019 headline level par theek saal the — Nifty dono saal positive band hua. Uske andar midcap investors ke liye ye do saal ka lagataar bleed tha. Ye wo case study hai jo 'index to upar hi hai' wale argument ko sabse achhe se todti hai.
DO SAAL KA HISAAB
2018 aur 2019 milakar:
• IT — +34.2%
• Bank Nifty — +25.9%
• Sensex — +21.1%
• Nifty 50 — +15.6%
• FMCG — +12.2%
• Nifty 500 — +4.0%
• Realty — -13.9%
• Pharma — -16.4%
• Midcap 100 — -19.1%
• Metal — -28.9%
• PSU Bank — -31.8%
• Media — -47.9%
Nifty +15.6% aur Midcap 100 -19.1% — 34.7 percentage point ka gap, do saal mein. Hamare midcap-vs-largecap record mein 2018 (-18.6 points) aur 2019 (-16.4 points) do sabse bure lagataar saal hain.
NIFTY 500 SABSE SAAF SABOOT HAI
Nifty 500 do saal mein sirf +4.0% raha jabki Nifty 50 +15.6%. Nifty 500 mein 500 companies hain; uska Nifty se itna peechhe rehna batata hai ki gain bahut hi thode bade naamon mein simat gaya tha.
Yehi wo cheez hai jise breadth collapse kehte hain: index chadh raha hota hai kyunki uske top 10-15 stocks chadh rahe hain, jabki neeche ke saikdon stocks gir rahe hote hain. Screen par 'market all-time high' likha aata hai aur portfolio laal hota hai.
2017 KE BAAD KA HANGOVER
Ye samajhne ke liye 2017 dekhna zaroori hai: us saal Realty +109.8% (poore dataset ka sabse bada sector saal) aur Midcap 100 Nifty se 18.6 point aage tha. 2018-19 usi ka ulta hissa tha.
2017 ke leaders aur unka agla do-saal ka haal:
• Realty — 2017 mein +109.8%, 2018-19 mein -13.9%
• Metal — 2017 mein +48.5%, 2018-19 mein -28.9%
• PSU Bank — 2017 mein +24.1%, 2018-19 mein -31.8%
• Media — 2017 mein +32.7%, 2018-19 mein -47.9%
Char mein se chaaron palat gaye. Hamare sector rotation study ka pattern — leadership lagataar nahi tikti — yahan sabse mehngi shakal mein dikha.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.