Ek aur calendar belief, aur uska 19-saal ka record — farq 0.02% per day ka
Published by The Retail Trader · JUL 24, 2026 · Weekly Outlook
Weekday wale test ke baad humne wahi sawaal mahine par poocha: kya mahine ka pehla half doosre half se alag chalta hai? SIP flows, salary cycle aur F&O expiry — teeno is idea ke peechhe di jaane wali wajahein hain.
Nifty ke 4,622 sessions, tareekh ke hisaab se baante hue:
• Pehla half (1-15 tareekh) — average +0.055% per day, 53.3% din green, n=2,259
• Doosra half (16-31 tareekh) — average +0.035% per day, 52.7% din green, n=2,364
Farq 0.020 percentage points per day ka hai, aur hit rate mein 0.6 point ka. Weekday wale test se bhi chhota.
Do alag calendar theories test ki gayin — weekday aur month-half — aur dono mein farq transaction cost se chhota nikla. Ye ittefaq nahi hai. Bahut saare log ye patterns dekh rahe hain; agar unmein paisa hota to wo bahut pehle nikal chuka hota.
Iske ulta, wahi dataset mahine ke level par ek saaf pattern dikhata hai: January ka average -1.27% aur April ka +3.26% — 4.5 point ka farq. Yaani calendar effects poori tarah bekaar nahi hain; bas wo bahut chhote time-scales par nahi milte.
Yahan bhi sample size ka wahi sawaal hai. Mahine ke level par har mahine ke sirf 19 observations hain, isliye wo 4.5 point ka farq bhi rule nahi, background hai. Day-level par observations 900+ hain — yaani wahan ka 'kuch nahi mila' zyada bharosemand hai, kyunki data kaafi tha aur phir bhi kuch nahi nikla.
Ye ulta lag sakta hai par yahi statistics ka asli chehra hai: jitna chhota effect dhoondhna ho, utna zyada data chahiye. Din ke level par humein kaafi data mila aur effect nahi mila. Mahine ke level par effect dikha par data kam hai.
Calendar ke aadhar par entry ya size badalna is data se justify nahi hota. Jo cheezein justify hoti hain — volatility regime ke hisaab se position size, aur drawdown ke hisaab se exposure — wo calendar se nahi, market ki apni condition se aati hain.
Is article ke saare aankde The Retail Trader ke apne daily index database se compute kiye gaye hain, 24 July 2026 tak. Past performance future ka koi indication nahi hai, aur ye analysis sirf educational hai — koi buy ya sell recommendation nahi.