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US markets, Asian markets, the dollar index and crude — what each cue tells you
Published by The Retail Trader · AUG 09, 2026 · Features
Before the Indian market opens, its mood has largely been decided already. The reason is simple: other markets in the world were running all night, and whatever happened in them sets the opening here.
After India's market closes, Europe runs, then the US. After the US closes, Asia opens, and a little after that, we do. So in the morning we have the full night's information.
This is why gap-ups and gap-downs are so common. The night's accounting arrives in one jolt.
Different cues mean different things:
• US indices — the biggest indicator of global risk appetite. A rally or a fall there affects almost every market.
• Asian markets — the freshest data in the morning. They have already digested the US reaction.
• Dollar index — when the dollar strengthens, the pressure to pull money out of emerging markets increases.
• Crude oil — a direct macro effect for India, because the import bill and inflation are both tied to it.
• US bond yields — the reference for global valuations. When yields rise, risk assets come under pressure.
A version of the Indian index also trades abroad, and it is running before our market opens. So in the morning its level gives a rough idea of where the market will open.
But this is only an indication, not a guarantee. After the open, the real movement is shaped by domestic flows and news, and it can differ from the indication within the first 15 minutes.
Taking a decision for the whole day on the basis of the global cue. After a gap, the market often takes its own path — selling on a gap-up and buying on a gap-down are both very common.
So treat the cue only as an initial reference. The structure of the day forms only after the market opens.
When there is a big global event — a central bank decision, a major geopolitical shock, or data from a large economy. On such days correlation rises sharply and local factors take a back seat.
And in a calm global period the opposite happens: our market runs on its own results, flows and policy, and the global cue is just noise.
This article is for educational purposes only — it is not a buy or sell recommendation, makes no claim of guaranteed returns, and is not advisory. Rules, rates and mechanics are changed from time to time by the exchanges, SEBI and RBI, so verify every number yourself with your broker or an official source.