Loading
Nifty -3.10% — and historically the weakest month of the year
Published by The Retail Trader · JAN 30, 2026 · Monthly Audit
January 2026 was -3.10% for the Nifty. According to our seasonality study, this is not unusual: over the past 19 years January has averaged -1.27%, and only 26% of Januaries have closed green — the weakest month in the whole calendar.
20 sessions:
• Bank Nifty — +0.05%, almost exactly flat
• Nifty 50 — -3.10%
• Nifty 500 — -3.32%
• Midcap 100 — -3.39%
• Sensex — -3.46%
Apart from Bank Nifty, everything fell by almost the same amount — between 3.1% and 3.5%. When everything falls within the same range, it is a broad de-rating, not a problem with any one sector.
Of the Nifty's 20 sessions, 8 were up and 12 were down. The best day of the month was the very first — 2 January (+0.70%) — and that same day became the peak of all of 2026, the point from which the decline so far is measured.
Four up, four down:
• Metal — +5.9%
• PSU Bank — +5.7%
• IT — +0.4%
• Bank — 0.0%
• Media — -4.1%
• Pharma — -4.4%
• FMCG — -7.7%
• Realty — -10.8%
FMCG's -7.7% deserves attention because it is the least volatile sector in the entire dataset (annualised volatility 16.5%, equal to the Nifty). A 7.7% move in one month in that sector is bigger than its own standard.
India VIX went from a low of 9.45 to 14.45, and closed at 13.63. In December 2025 it had touched 9.15 — the calmest level in the whole recent record. That calm ended in January, and by March the VIX reached 27.89.
All figures in this article are computed from The Retail Trader's own daily index database, as of 24 July 2026. Past performance is no indication of the future, and this analysis is for educational purposes only — it is not a buy or sell recommendation.